Bitcoin Bubbles, Crashes, Price Changes: Lessons Learned ...

Postmortem of a Bitcoin crash (2013-04-10)… and the secret story revealed by Volume

Postmortem of a Bitcoin crash (2013-04-10)… and the secret story revealed by Volume submitted by SimonQuartersmith to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Crash 2013: What Happened and What Does It Mean For the Future?

submitted by michaelsuede to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Crashing. Before You Do Anything Watch This Video. [Stephen Colbert Video 2013]

Bitcoin Crashing. Before You Do Anything Watch This Video. [Stephen Colbert Video 2013] submitted by accounttopay to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Bitcoin’s price crash in 2018 ($10,000) looks very similar to its price crash in 2013 ($100)

Bitcoin’s price crash in 2018 ($10,000) looks very similar to its price crash in 2013 ($100) submitted by autonova3 to interestingasfuck [link] [comments]

This article didn't age well. The bitcoin crash of 2013: Don't you feel silly now?

This article didn't age well. The bitcoin crash of 2013: Don't you feel silly now? submitted by AlexiStrife to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

After the April crash, I bet a friend $1,000.00 that Bitcoin would be worth $1,000.00 before December 31, 2013.

After the April crash, I bet a friend $1,000.00 that Bitcoin would be worth $1,000.00 before December 31, 2013. submitted by agggat to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Putting the Bitcoin "Crash" of Dec, 2013 in Perspective
An updated logarithmic chart showing the "crash" of December 2013. Prices could still go lower, and perhaps even go back to where they started before the Chinese entered the space, but it would have to crash below $100 to not stay within it's 0.6% daily growth margin of historical volatility.
EDIT: I should have added, that when I did a price projection in late Septermber, prior to the hyper-exponential growth from China, I was predicting prices would hit $1000 sometime in late March or early April of 2014.
submitted by playanaut to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

lol Bloomberg fades out the 2013 crash in chart to hype up bitcoin

lol Bloomberg fades out the 2013 crash in chart to hype up bitcoin submitted by nowTHATScomedy to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

I bookmarked this video explaining what bitcoin is in April 2013. I only bought in just before the first big crash in November that year (and HODL'd to this day). Check your bookmarks once in a while kids!

I bookmarked this video explaining what bitcoin is in April 2013. I only bought in just before the first big crash in November that year (and HODL'd to this day). Check your bookmarks once in a while kids! submitted by steelpan to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

In 2013, I built an algorithm that made predictions about BTC price fluctuations and mining difficulty. (Discussion on how Bitcoin is becoming crash proof, and why Wall Street needs to trim the fat.)

My algorithm showed a "rubber banding" effect. With outliers excluded from my data, it was 94% accurate. With outliers included with my data, it was still 85% accurate.
When difficulty sees large gains, price (USD valuation) will rise steadily, then begin dropping sharply.
When BTC to USD sees large gains, difficulty will change at a slower rate at first, then drop sharply in terms of growth proportion to it's standard deviations of movement.
We are currently witnessing this rubber band lag on difficulty fueled by the giant price increase.
As difficulty drops, more miners will enter the market, and liquidity in the "minted" supply of Bitcoins will increase.
Ultimately, from an economics standpoint, this transition will act as a harmonious correction in either direction, for either rubber banding case.
Bitcoin has a built-in harmonic motion between the liquid market, USD valuation, difficulty, and supply/demand liquidity.
My algorithm lines up with most of the hedge fund guys throwing out large 5 figure valuations for 2018.
I would declare with a degree of certainty above 50% that we will see a valuation of between $12,500 and $20,000 in early spring/late winter.
This will be followed by a gradual decline until near mid-end of Summer.
At which point valuation will begin increasing again, and will hit more... asinine valuations, near the end of 2018. [[This timing range of Summer to Winter of 2018 is the most logical location for a major bubble and crash event, according my current algorithms.]]
The real threat of a bubble exists still, BUT, Bitcoin has developed a resistance to massive market swings, and as it's overall USD valuation increases, the risk is dropping steeply.
You must consider that these days, for Bitcoin's valuation to move $50 USD, requires BILLIONS of USD in trade transactions to occur.
Since mainstream Wallstreet isn't a heavy player in Bitcoin still, this makes BTC immune/resistant to flash crashes, as most long term HODLers are "indoctrinated" and won't fall prey to panic. (Yet, few players in the Bitcoin space are not and could not throw around hundreds of millions of dollars just to create a synthetic pump or crash, unlike 2011-2013 when some larger whales could tip the whole market.)
The amount of liquid capital in BTC owned by "panicky public" is becoming a negligible amount in proportion, and will soon cease having any real effect on day to day valuations.
Financiers, wall street, hedge funds. If anyone in your financial department has an opinion within the realm of the following:
"I don't understand it."
"It's a scam."
"It's not worth looking into."
"It is too volatile."
I would solemnly consider a one to one meeting with that employee. Bitcoin's market cap is higher than the majority of Fortune 500 companies annual revenue. Bitcoin's daily trade magnitudes are between 2 billion and 10 billion USD worth of DAILY active movement.
If an employee is refusing to even look into it, because they "don't understand" or "believe it is a scam"
Make them look into it, or fire their negligent ass. That level of ignorance is equally as bad, as if your company had a major competitor rising in their market space, and this employee refused to research that competitor at all.
That's the type of value movement going on now.
Tulip mania boomed and exploded in roughly 2-3 years.
This is NOT a tulip situation.
Bitcoin was established in 2010 and has had growth outpacing every other financial investment possible for the LAST SEVEN YEARS.
submitted by GangsterWisdom to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

03-02 20:44 - 'Federal Reserve May Add Bitcoin Crash to Stress Test Scenarios - CoinDesk' ( by /u/Bitcoin_21 removed from /r/Bitcoin within 2013-2023min

Federal Reserve May Add Bitcoin Crash to Stress Test Scenarios - CoinDesk
Go1dfish undelete link
unreddit undelete link
Author: Bitcoin_21
submitted by removalbot to removalbot [link] [comments]

A lot of people (plus the media) like to point out the fact that Bitcoin has spiked 5000%+ this year as a sign of a coming crash. However, these same people dismiss the startling statistic from BitPay: 5000%+ increase in purchases from Black Friday 2012 to 2013.

Obviously, these two don't have a 1:1 correlation. However, there is a case to be made that BitPay provides a pretty nice barometer of the Bitcoin economy and the rate of merchant / consumer adoption. And based on that fact, there is no denying that Bitcoin's real usefulness and adoption has grown exponentially this year.
This is what economists should look at when they talk about Bitcoin and "tulip mania".
submitted by BrazenAmberite to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Putting $400M of Bitcoin on your company balance sheet

Also posted on my blog as usual. Read it there if you can, there are footnotes and inlined plots.
A couple of months ago, MicroStrategy (MSTR) had a spare $400M of cash which it decided to shift to Bitcoin (BTC).
Today we'll discuss in excrutiating detail why this is not a good idea.
When a company has a pile of spare money it doesn't know what to do with, it'll normally do buybacks or start paying dividends. That gives the money back to the shareholders, and from an economic perspective the money can get better invested in other more promising companies. If you have a huge pile of of cash, you probably should be doing other things than leave it in a bank account to gather dust.
However, this statement from MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor exists to make it clear he's buying into BTC for all the wrong reasons:
“This is not a speculation, nor is it a hedge. This was a deliberate corporate strategy to adopt a bitcoin standard.”
Let's unpack it and jump into the economics Bitcoin:

Is Bitcoin money?

Or rather BTC doesn't act as money and there's no serious future path for BTC to become a form of money. Let's go back to basics. There are 3 main economic problems money solves:
1. Medium of Exchange. Before money we had to barter, which led to the double coincidence of wants problem. When everyone accepts the same money you can buy something from someone even if they don't like the stuff you own.
As a medium of exchange, BTC is not good. There are significant transaction fees and transaction waiting times built-in to BTC and these worsen the more popular BTC get.
You can test BTC's usefulness as a medium of exchange for yourself right now: try to order a pizza or to buy a random item with BTC. How many additional hurdles do you have to go through? How many fewer options do you have than if you used a regular currency? How much overhead (time, fees) is there?
2. Unit of Account. A unit of account is what you compare the value of objects against. We denominate BTC in terms of how many USD they're worth, so BTC is a unit of account presently. We can say it's because of lack of adoption, but really it's also because the market value of BTC is so volatile.
If I buy a $1000 table today or in 2017, it's roughly a $1000 table. We can't say that a 0.4BTC table was a 0.4BTC table in 2017. We'll expand on this in the next point:
3. Store of Value. When you create economic value, you don't want to be forced to use up the value you created right away.
For instance, if I fix your washing machine and you pay me in avocados, I'd be annoyed. I'd have to consume my payment before it becomes brown, squishy and disgusting. Avocado fruit is not good money because avocadoes loses value very fast.
On the other hand, well-run currencies like the USD, GBP, CAD, EUR, etc. all lose their value at a low and most importantly fairly predictible rate. Let's look at the chart of the USD against BTC
While the dollar loses value at a predictible rate, BTC is all over the place, which is bad.
One important use money is to write loan contracts. Loans are great. They let people spend now against their future potential earnings, so they can buy houses or start businesses without first saving up for a decade. Loans are good for the economy.
If you want to sign something that says "I owe you this much for that much time" then you need to be able to roughly predict the value of the debt in at the point in time where it's due.
Otherwise you'll have a hard time pricing the risk of the loan effectively. This means that you need to charge higher interests. The risk of making a loan in BTC needs to be priced into the interest of a BTC-denominated loan, which means much higher interest rates. High interests on loans are bad, because buying houses and starting businesses are good things.

BTC has a fixed supply, so these problems are built in

Some people think that going back to a standard where our money was denominated by a stock of gold (the Gold Standard) would solve economic problems. This is nonsense.
Having control over supply of your currency is a good thing, as long as it's well run.
See here
Remember that what is desirable is low variance in the value, not the value itself. When there are wild fluctuations in value, it's hard for money to do its job well.
Since the 1970s, the USD has been a fiat money with no intrinsic value. This means we control the supply of money.
Let's look at a classic poorly drawn econ101 graph
The market price for USD is where supply meets demand. The problem with a currency based on an item whose supply is fixed is that the price will necessarily fluctuate in response to changes in demand.
Imagine, if you will, that a pandemic strikes and that the demand for currency takes a sharp drop. The US imports less, people don't buy anything anymore, etc. If you can't print money, you get deflation, which is worsens everything. On the other hand, if you can make the money printers go brrrr you can stabilize the price
Having your currency be based on a fixed supply isn't just bad because in/deflation is hard to control.
It's also a national security risk...
The story of the guy who crashed gold prices in North Africa
In the 1200s, Mansa Munsa, the emperor of the Mali, was rich and a devout Muslim and wanted everyone to know it. So he embarked on a pilgrimage to make it rain all the way to Mecca.
He in fact made it rain so hard he increased the overall supply of gold and unintentionally crashed gold prices in Cairo by 20%, wreaking an economic havoc in North Africa that lasted a decade.
This story is fun, the larger point that having your inflation be at the mercy of foreign nations is an undesirable attribute in any currency. The US likes to call some countries currency manipulators, but this problem would be serious under a gold standard.

Currencies are based on trust

Since the USD is based on nothing except the US government's word, how can we trust USD not to be mismanaged?
The answer is that you can probably trust the fed until political stooges get put in place. Currently, the US's central bank managing the USD, the Federal Reserve (the Fed for friends & family), has administrative authority. The fed can say "no" to dumb requests from the president.
People who have no idea what the fed does like to chant "audit the fed", but the fed is already one of the best audited US federal entities. The transcripts of all their meetings are out in the open. As is their balance sheet, what they plan to do and why. If the US should audit anything it's the Department of Defense which operates without any accounting at all.
It's easy to see when a central bank will go rogue: it's when political yes-men are elected to the board.
For example, before printing themselves into hyperinflation, the Venezuelan president appointed a sociologist who publicly stated “Inflation does not exist in real life” and instead is a made up capitalist lie. Note what happened mere months after his gaining control over the Venezuelan currency
This is a key policy. One paper I really like, Sargent (1984) "The end of 4 big inflations" states:
The essential measures that ended hyperinflation in each of Germany,Austria, Hungary, and Poland were, first, the creation of an independentcentral bank that was legally committed to refuse the government'sdemand or additional unsecured credit and, second, a simultaneousalteration in the fiscal policy regime.
In english: *hyperinflation stops when the central bank can say "no" to the government."
The US Fed, like other well good central banks, is run by a bunch of nerds. When it prints money, even as aggressively as it has it does so for good reasons. You can see why they started printing on March 15th as the COVID lockdowns started:
The Federal Reserve is prepared to use its full range of tools to support the flow of credit to households and businesses and thereby promote its maximum employment and price stability goals.
In english: We're going to keep printing and lowering rates until jobs are back and inflation is under control. If we print until the sun is blotted out, we'll print in the shade.

BTC is not gold

Gold is a good asset for doomsday-preppers. If society crashes, gold will still have value.
How do we know that?
Gold has held value throughout multiple historic catastrophes over thousands of years. It had value before and after the Bronze Age Collapse, the Fall of the Western Roman Empire and Gengis Khan being Gengis Khan.
Even if you erased humanity and started over, the new humans would still find gold to be economically valuable. When Europeans d̶i̶s̶c̶o̶v̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ c̶o̶n̶q̶u̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ g̶e̶n̶o̶c̶i̶d̶e̶d̶ went to America, they found gold to be an important item over there too. This is about equivalent to finding humans on Alpha-Centauri and learning that they think gold is a good store of value as well.
Some people are puzzled at this: we don't even use gold for much! But it has great properties:
First, gold is hard to fake and impossible to manufacture. This makes it good to ascertain payment.
Second, gold doesnt react to oxygen, so it doesn't rust or tarnish. So it keeps value over time unlike most other materials.
Last, gold is pretty. This might sound frivolous, and you may not like it, but jewelry has actual value to humans.
It's no coincidence if you look at a list of the wealthiest families, a large number of them trade in luxury goods.
To paraphrase Veblen humans have a profound desire to signal social status, for the same reason peacocks have unwieldy tails. Gold is a great way to achieve that.
On the other hand, BTC lacks all these attributes. Its value is largely based on common perception of value. There are a few fundamental drivers of demand:
Apart from these, it's hard to argue that BTC will retain value throughout some sort of economic catastrophe.

BTC is really risky

One last statement from Michael Saylor I take offense to is this:
“We feel pretty confident that Bitcoin is less risky than holding cash, less risky than holding gold,” MicroStrategy CEO said in an interview
"BTC is less risky than holding cash or gold long term" is nonsense. We saw before that BTC is more volatile on face value, and that as long as the Fed isn't run by spider monkeys stacked in a trench coat, the inflation is likely to be within reasonable bounds.
But on top of this, BTC has Abrupt downside risks that normal currencies don't. Let's imagine a few:

Blockchain solutions are fundamentally inefficient

Blockchain was a genius idea. I still marvel at the initial white paper which is a great mix of economics and computer science.
That said, blockchain solutions make large tradeoffs in design because they assume almost no trust between parties. This leads to intentionally wasteful designs on a massive scale.
The main problem is that all transactions have to be validated by expensive computational operations and double checked by multiple parties. This means waste:
Many design problems can be mitigated by various improvements over BTC, but it remains that a simple database always works better than a blockchain if you can trust the parties to the transaction.
submitted by VodkaHaze to badeconomics [link] [comments]

After seven years in Bitcoin, I have never been more confident that this network is now absolutely unstoppable. Nothing short of an extinction level event can stop Bitcoin from slowly but surely growing as a global, agnostic, alternative network for storing and transferring value.

Back in 2013 when the entire market cap hit $1 Billion for the first time, it was really scary to put a considerable amount of money in BTC. You might like Bitcoin and find it interesting but doubt would still creep up in your mind about its staying power and the fact that one bug could bring it all down. Mt. Gox got hacked, 800,000 BTC stolen, it crashed from $1200 to $190 by 2015, so how do you even believe that 5 years later it would be a sustained $200+ billion market? Yet here we are.
As long as the Bitcoin blockchain is churning out new blocks of unstoppable transactions, that's all that matters. Naysayers don't understand that this is all Bitcoin needs to do: Churn out new blocks every ten minutes. And with every new block, a monumental amount of energy and work is stacked on top of the previous block, and so on, and so forth, making it stronger. At 99.98% uptime for 11 years, it's sticky enough to now last much longer than that. This network will be transferring and storing trillions of dollars within this decade and beyond.
submitted by Godfreee to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Trying to salvage some coins from 2013. Core (bitcoin-qt.exe v0.8.1-beta on Windows 8.1) is taking weeks to DL the blockchain as expected but keeps crashing now. Can I upgrade to a newer version without losing what I've gotten already (about 75% complete)?

Currently there are 134305 blocks remaining. When I start it up it works pretty smoothly for a while but then slows down. I leave it running while I'm gone but the last several days when I've come back it has crashed and gives me an I/O error, and I have to hit OK then start it back up. It does appear to be further along when I start it back up but not by a whole lot. So this has really slowed my progress. It's reindexed about 75% though, and so I don't want to start over from the beginning.
The drive it is on has ~400gb of free space so that's not the issue. I have 8gb of memory, and the task manager says bitcoin is taking up about 500mb, but it's using 60-85% of my cpu at a time.
If I download a newer version of core, I can just copy/paste the old wallet.dat file, right? But wouldn't it have to start downloading the entire blockchain again from the beginning? If so, is there any quicker method?
While typing this, it crashed twice. It only runs for about 10 minutes.
The version I have doesn't have any settings I can change. I read that there's a db size limit you can change in later versions that could help. This one does have a "debug window" with a command line console but I don't really know what to do with it. Here is a list of available commands: 
addmultisigaddress <'["key","key"]'> [account]
createmultisig <'["key","key"]'>
createrawtransaction [{"txid":txid,"vout":n},...] {address:amount,...}
getaddednodeinfo [node]
getbalance [account] [minconf=1]
getblocktemplate [params]
getnewaddress [account]
getrawtransaction [verbose=0]
getreceivedbyaccount [minconf=1]
getreceivedbyaddress [minconf=1]
gettxout [includemempool=true]
getwork [data]
help [command]
importprivkey [label] [rescan=true]
listaccounts [minconf=1]
listreceivedbyaccount [minconf=1] [includeempty=false]
listreceivedbyaddress [minconf=1] [includeempty=false]
listsinceblock [blockhash] [target-confirmations]
listtransactions [account] [count=10] [from=0]
listunspent [minconf=1] [maxconf=9999999] ["address",...]
lockunspent unlock? [array-of-Objects]
move [minconf=1] [comment]
sendfrom [minconf=1] [comment] [comment-to]
sendmany {address:amount,...} [minconf=1] [comment]
sendtoaddress [comment] [comment-to]
setgenerate [genproclimit]
signrawtransaction [{"txid":txid,"vout":n,"scriptPubKey":hex,"redeemScript":hex},...] [,...] [sighashtype="ALL"]
submitblock [optional-params-obj]

submitted by closer_to_the_flame to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Wtf happened to bitcoin (ex-bitcoineer from 2013 crash)

I heard of bitcoin late 2012, was an advocate for it up until the big crash from 1000 to 300. I started hearing my less techy friends start to hype about bitcoin and now, its boomed again! What has happened since ive left??
submitted by PhancyPhixed to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Is Crashing, circa April 2013.

Bitcoin Is Crashing, circa April 2013. submitted by tijapa to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

So the bitcoin crash of 2013 was mainly due to China's central bank declaring a warning against bitcoin as legal tender, right? Can someone ELI5 this for me?

submitted by throwaway1025187 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Bitcoin HODLER since early 2013 confronting new investors on recent crash

Bitcoin HODLER since early 2013 confronting new investors on recent crash submitted by attackfarce to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Bitcoin investors HODLing for warmth during a crash in the early days of bitcoin (2013)

Bitcoin investors HODLing for warmth during a crash in the early days of bitcoin (2013) submitted by poloport to fakehistoryporn [link] [comments]

If bitcoin is sort of recreating the 2013 crash, what should be the lowest it gets now?

submitted by KingCanary to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

"Bitcoin are in a similar climb as back in 2013, the question to everyones mind this time around is how big the next crash will be after this bull run is finished." ​ *My suggestion is...
submitted by pliten3 to economy [link] [comments]

BITCOIN CRASH!!! Mt. Gox Crash 11/20/2013 SCARY: Bitcoin 2013 vs Bitcoin 2018 Bitcoin Bull Run - November, 2013! - YouTube BITCOIN BIG PRICE CRASH into NEW BEAR MARKET Ahead!!!?

The bitcoin crash of 2013: Don’t you feel silly now? ... The proximate cause of the bitcoin crash was a warning by China’s central bank against treating bitcoins as legal tender. The Beijing ... Was auf das Vorgeplänkel folgte war ein Crash im Bitcoin im Winter 2013/2014. Vom Höchststand bei 1242 USD ging es binnen 4 Monaten hinunter auf 91 USD bei MtGox. Genau der Börse die zuvor noch viele Fans dadurch anzog, dass Bitcoins auf MtGox teils 100 USD teurer gehandelt werden konnten, als auf den anderen Börsen. Genau diese anderen Börsen konnten den folgenden Crash wesentlich besser ... Den Jahresstart für 2018 haben sich viele Bitcoin-Investoren sicherlich anders vorgestellt. Die weltweit wichtigste Kryptowährung verzeichnete im Januar den größten Monatsverlust seit 2013. Fortune offers a closer look at this month's bitcoin crash and four other major price shocks—as well as likely explanations for all of them. Bitcoin had its largest price drop since 2013, plummeting over 40%. The drop was precipitated by today’s relentless stock market sell-off. Global Markets in Turmoil. Markets went into free-fall. The DOW Jones Industrial Average dropped 2,352 points, or nearly 10%—the biggest one-day drop since 1987. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were each down more than 9%. The mayhem was precipitated by the ...

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Bitcoin Cryptocurrency Crash Course with Andreas Antonopoulos ... Bitcoin 2013 conference - Roger Ver - Bitcoin 101 for Business - Duration: 59:22. Athena Roberts 7,243 views. 59:22 . How to learn ... Bitcoin price skyrocketed during Q3 of 2013. Coverage of the Bit-coin price rise, and crash in; October & November of 2013! #Bitcoin #BitcoinToTheMoon Daytrader - Der Traum vom schnellen Geld 2 (2013) HD 1080p - Duration: 43:26. ... Bitcoin Crash LIVE TA Strategy - Duration: 2:08:28. Crypto Hippo Trading 1,885 views. 2:08:28 🔴YOU WILL LOSE ... Close. This video is unavailable. Throughout the history of cryptocurrencies, there were several severe crashes/bear market. We can learn from it and need to learn from it. What is different between crashes now and in 2013 ...